The rebound and reversal of BTC market are still on the left side of the trend, and what season is the knockoff? To reverse the market trend, two necessary conditions must be met 1. BTC long-term holding supply needs to account for more than 75% of the total circulating supply. Currently, long-term holding is still on the rise, as shown in box A in the figure, and has not reached this value. 2. At the macro level, there are no other negative events such as the suspension of interest rate hikes, loose QE period, and self narrative speculation of BTC.