This data is very important because it involves whether the Federal Reserve will make additional interest rate cuts. Let's first look at the data. Before the GDP was released today, CME's forecast probability for the Fed not to cut interest rates in May and June was 92.3% and 35.2%, respectively. Four hours after the GDP data appeared, the current forecast data are 94.2% and 36.1%, respectively. That is to say, the market expects that the probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates in June has increased, because although the GDP data is negative, the pot is Trump's tariff policy, not the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the stability of the domestic economy is still high, so the Federal Reserve may not be eager to cut interest rates in June. Trump is facing a dilemma at the moment. If he insists on promoting the tariff path, he may personally push the United States into recession. If he abandons the tariff path, the "manufacturing industry backflow" and protectionist stance will be weakened, and even deny the main policy achievements of the past few months. At the same time, the market has begun to worry that its policy uncertainty itself will become a trigger for a new round of economic downturn. Therefore, the subsequent decline in the risk market has changed from a recession path to an uncertainty superimposed on Trump's trade policy. The market decline is more due to "the hope of interest rate reduction is suppressed" than "extreme data". This is a pricing process that involves dual pressures of political risk and policy lag. This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex