The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May has risen to nearly 100% According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 99.4% (previously 95.3%), and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 0.6%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 53.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 45.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.3%.