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财经少华
财经少华|May 04, 2025 03:52
After the release of non farm payroll data, Trump once again shouted: tariffs bring billions of dollars in revenue, the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates, what happened? Let's take a look together. On May 2nd, data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 177000 in April, slightly lower than the downward revised 185000 in March, but higher than Dow Jones' estimate of 133000. However, the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% as expected, indicating a relatively stable labor market. The household survey used to calculate the unemployment rate shows that the number of employed people has grown even stronger, with an increase of 436000 in the number of reported jobs for the month. This non farm payroll data is particularly crucial for adjusting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations, Before the data was released, the probability of traders betting on a rate cut in June was about 60%, but it quickly dropped to around 50% after the data was released, and the expected number of rate cuts this year was also lowered from four to nearly three. After the release of non farm payroll data, US President Trump once again shouted that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates. Trump tweeted, "Gasoline prices have just fallen below $1.98 per gallon, the lowest in years, grocery (and egg!) prices are down, energy prices are down, mortgage rates are down, employment is strong, and there's more good news as billions of dollars flood in from tariffs. As I said, we're just in the transition phase, just beginning, consumers have been waiting for years to see prices fall. (We) don't have inflation, the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates.
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Timeline

Jun 03, 02:39【The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged is 95.3%】
Jun 02, 22:18【The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 95.3%】
Jun 02, 19:54【Federal Reserve Chairman Powell needs to cut interest rates】
Jun 02, 17:26【Federal Reserve Board Members Indicate Possible Interest Rate Reduction】
Jun 02, 14:45【Powell gave a speech today and may resign】
Jun 02, 09:12【Tariffs will become the main driving force for inflation this year】
Jun 02, 02:12【The probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in June is 4.6%】
Jun 02, 00:26【Federal Reserve meeting minutes show higher uncertainty】
Jun 02, 00:22【Waller: It is still possible to cut interest rates later this year】
Jun 02, 00:19【Chris Waller is inclined to lower interest rates this year】

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