QCP Capital: The sharp rise of the Taiwanese dollar may become a key signal for the macro market, and Bitcoin may be affected by this in the future

QCP Capital stated that the Taiwanese dollar surged 8% on Monday, and Asia Pacific currencies such as the Korean won also generally strengthened. The spread between Taiwanese dollar spot and one-year forward contracts reached a 20-year high. This is mainly due to the increasing speculation in the market about the US Taiwan trade agreement, as well as the impact of Taiwanese insurance institutions increasing their US dollar asset hedging. QCP believes that this may be an early signal of a global capital flow adjustment, similar to the significant fluctuations in the Japanese yen last year due to changes in interest rate spreads. Meanwhile, gold prices also rose nearly 3% on Monday, reflecting market concerns about the weakening of the US dollar and geopolitical risks. In the future, Bitcoin may be affected by this, either decoupling from the trend of gold or benefiting from the progress of trade negotiations, and the foreign exchange market may become a barometer of macro changes.