1. Two paths at the macro levelThe weight of CPI and PPI data in the next two weeks is not as important as the tariff rates of China and the United States. The main contradiction at the macro level at this stage is the tariff intensity. There are roughly two paths to the relationship between tariffs and interest rate cuts: ① The tariff terms between China, the United States, and Europe have not reached a consensus within 90 days, leading to a recessionary interest rate cut that may occur in Q3;