Researchers at the Fed and UCLA used 25 million newspaper articles since 1900 to construct a "shortage index." Not surprisingly, shortages are associated with higher inflation and lower economic output. Another finding: "Compared to traditional contractionary supply shocks, shortage shocks produce less inflation relative to their impact on economic activity—suggesting that shortages often involve constraints on price adjustment that limit inflation but magnify the decline in real activity." Paper: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/measuring-shortages-since-1900.htm