To put it bluntly, this tariff negotiation is just a ceasefire, far from a peace agreement As I mentioned in my previous tweet, "Trump's tariff control valve is in its own hands. If it is too uncomfortable, it will be lowered" I predicted yesterday that Trump would maintain the new tariff difference between China and other countries at 20-40%, which now seems to be 20%. Indeed, Trump is not very tough, and it should mainly be the internal economic pressure: US debt, cpi In addition, the weighted average of the newly added 30% plus the previous 301 is also between 45% and 55%. (55 is calculated by the White House Trade Representative, 45% is calculated by AI). Whether such tariff difference is enough to drain a considerable part of Chinese manufacturing industry and weaken China is an important consideration of whether Trump will still use the "control valve". However, in the short term, Trump will obviously focus on domestic policies and ask the Congress to reduce taxes with the 10% tariff revenue generally levied. The tariffs are relatively relaxed, and if CPI can be effectively controlled, we can also strive for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The risk of a sharp drop in the US stock market after 4.2 in the short term has significantly decreased In the future, tariffs will obviously be used again and again as weapons against China. The Swiss negotiation does not mean the end. Just like Trump repeatedly imposed tariffs on China during his first term of office, this negotiation is just a break from the first round.