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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|May 13, 2025 18:52
The bond market is fighting Trump: Despite countless efforts to calm yields, they keep rising. The 10Y Note Yield is now up +35 bps in May alone, back at 4.50%. As trade deals are announced, rate cuts are being priced out, giving Powell more of a reason to not cut rates. Again, we believe the bond market is Trump’s top economic priority here. Rates are nearly 100 bps ABOVE pre-Fed pivot levels.
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Timeline

Jun 12, 17:51【The bond market is filled with capital】
Jun 11, 13:53【Vice President Vance says Powell will be forced to cut interest rates】
Jun 11, 13:04【Everything points to a bull market for the rest of this year】
Jun 11, 12:43【The interest rate cut is faster than you imagine】
Jun 11, 12:39【Core month on month printing is below 0.25%】
Jun 10, 19:02【The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 99.9%】
Jun 10, 12:54【The market value of the US bond market has dropped to 68% of the stock market】
Jun 09, 17:13【Jerome Powell will soon be forced to cut interest rates】
Jun 08, 15:22【The market expects a rate cut on July 30th】
Jun 08, 10:43【The Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for June 17-18】

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