The June US Treasury swap will release a large wave of liquidity, and the real knockoff season will be from June to July. Shanzhai, small cap stocks in the US stock market, and gold have all experienced upward trends. It can be called a 'US Treasury swap bull'. In June, a total of 6.5 trillion yuan of bonds will mature, of which at least 1.42 trillion yuan of new bonds need to be issued to replace old bonds. Who will buy this 1.42 trillion yuan new bond, and what interest rate will be used to buy it, is the key to liquidity this time. First of all, don't expect China to buy it. After Trump's series of provocative actions, China will not use real money to support the United States like it did in 2008. And in March, China reduced its holdings of 27.6 billion yuan in long-term US bonds. Now, the second largest holder of US bonds is the UK, and China ranks third. China does not buy, let alone expect other allies to buy US bonds. Firstly, no one can afford it. Secondly, if we want foreign investors to consume such a huge amount of US bonds, the yield of US bonds will soar to the sky. This is something that the Trump administration cannot tolerate. The interest to be paid is too much to afford. So the only solution for the June debt swap is the Federal Reserve. one ⃣ Being able to print trillions of dollars of money in the short term to buy bonds. two ⃣ Being able to keep bond yields at a low level. Don't be fooled by Powell's stubbornness, this is the only solution and money must be printed. The final scenario is that the Federal Reserve will consume the vast majority of $1.42 trillion in US bonds, while other institutions and some countries will consume a small portion. Key point: The entire market has generated at least hundreds of billions of new massive cash flows during this US bond swap. ☀️☀️ Returning to the knowledge points we discussed before. The rise of Shanzhai and Russell 2000 is only related to "liquidity". With the release of this wave of liquidity, Shanzhai will usher in a real market trend. From June to July. Perhaps the knockoff market will continue to fluctuate downwards in the future, but I don't think it will hit a lower low again. The volatility will attract funds, and June to July will be the biggest bull market of the year.