⚡ Just came across this picture, there is a key number line - SOMA: 14825704800. Many people don't understand what this means, but the core question is: Has the Federal Reserve secretly started QE again? Simply put, technically speaking, yes; Mechanistically speaking, it doesn't count; From a market structure perspective, it hasn't stopped at all. I'll give you an example and you'll understand—— Your family has decided to repay a loan of up to 5000 yuan per month (QT limit), but one month a debt of 8000 yuan suddenly matured. You can't default on your debt, so you paid 3000 yuan to continue "buying" a portion of the debt, and then paid it back slowly to ensure that you didn't exceed the budget limit of 5000 yuan. This 3000 yuan is the 'SOMA add-on'. The increase in SOMA replenishment scale means that QT is starting to hesitate. What the Federal Reserve is doing now is this: it talks about QT, but in reality, it is secretly buying bonds to replenish its holdings. The name of shrinking the balance sheet is still there, but the margin of liquidity is shifting. Starting from March, the upper limit of QT's table reduction has been lowered from 25 billion to 5 billion, sending a signal to the market: "I dare not shrink too fast for fear of accidents This type of replenishment operation is different from the proactive release (QE) we usually see. It is not considered QE in terms of mechanism, but its effect on the market impact may not be much different, it is just releasing money. Because the market is not looking at whether you are QE or not, but at whether you continue to throw liquidity into the system. So, there's no need to wait for the Federal Reserve to officially announce 'we're restarting QE'. If you see that it's afraid of stalling and buying back bonds, you'll know—— The next liquidity cycle has already begun quietly in the details. The name doesn't matter, as long as the money comes in. Now it's like, the Federal Reserve doesn't really want to give fuel anymore, but finds that turning off the engine too quickly will cause it to overturn, so they start secretly adding a little more fuel. And Bitcoin is like a passenger sitting on the roof of a car: You don't have to drive, but as long as the car moves, it will go up into the sky!