Analyze the future trend of Bitcoin: This time, Bitcoin quickly rose from the bottom at 74500 and broke through a new high, In general, it is a good strategy for Bitcoin to go long after a period of volatility and breaking new highs, but there are still some macro and data factors that require investors to be cautious about Bitcoin's future. If the upward momentum in the next few days is weak, then this may only be a partial top of Bitcoin, rather than moving towards a higher price. In the next few days, we can focus on tracking the following four dimensions to determine whether this rally is accumulating momentum and rebounding, or a temporary peak—— Whether the net inflow of ETF continues to increase in volume On May 19-20, the spot BTC ETF grossed over $600 million in a single day, setting a new high for the month; If the inflow slows down or even turns negative next, it often means that institutional marginal buying is cooling down. Will the positive premium and funding rate further increase At present, the annualized capital rate of perpetual contracts has approached 9%, and "long interest payments" are becoming increasingly expensive; If the rate continues to rise and the spot volume cannot keep up, it is easy to trigger a chain reaction of long positions closing. Macro sentiment: US Treasury real yield&US dollar liquidity Before the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting, short-term real interest rates were still hovering at high levels; Once the expectation of interest rate cuts is dashed and liquidity is drained, high beta assets usually experience a pullback before macroeconomic deterioration. Turnover SOPR、 Net flow of the exchange If BTC challenges a new high again but is accompanied by a decrease in daily trading volume and a SOPR above 1 before turning downwards, while observing an increase in net inflows from short-term holders to the exchange, this often indicates a "distribution" rather than a "relay".