A comprehensive analysis of Ethereum's future Now BTC has continuously broken new highs, ETH/BTC is around 0.024, just rising 38% from a five-year low (0.017 → 0.024). Speaking of the macro level, Federal Reserve officials have publicly stated that if the tariff issue is eased before July, there is room for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, In addition, under the high interest rate environment, both gold and Bitcoin have reached new highs, Global funds are seeking a balance between anti inflation and high beta assets, Once the actual interest rate drops, the risk asset elasticity will be prioritized on ETH, which has not yet been fully priced. Speaking of funds, currently the cumulative net inflow of spot ETFs is 2.61 billion US dollars, which peaked in March and flowed out in April, returning to positive inflow in May, Basic explanation: 1 Initial release of institutional selling pressure 2 Institutions are reorganizing ETH. If the weekly net inflow remains above 500 million US dollars, it is basically optimistic about ETH's future growth. In addition, the open interest in futures contracts is around 31.16 billion US dollars, with a 50% surge in the first half of May, indicating active leveraged long positions. Next is on the chain, due to the decrease in L2 transaction fees, EIP-1559 has insufficient combustion and inflation has turned positive again, with a total amount of approximately 120.73 million ETH. However, the good news is that the staking rate has continued to climb since 2024, with a staking amount of approximately 34 million ETH, accounting for about 28% of circulation. Of course, the most important thing is that Ethereum still carries over 51% of the $230 billion stablecoin scale, indicating that its core position in on chain liquidity has not been shaken. Finally, predict the price and possible triggering conditions: The probability of 3000-3400U is 60%, and the weekly inflow of ETF remains at or below 500 million net inflow; Macro plans to cut interest rates once a year. The probability of 3800-4500U is 25%, and the monthly net inflow of ETF is>3 billion US dollars; The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice in advance. The probability of 1500-2200U is 15%, with macro re inflation and regulatory tightening in pledge services.