I forgot who mentioned that MSTR did not keep up with the rise of Bitcoin in the past few days, so it is possible to replicate the sharp decline after the double peak in the second half of 2021. The logic should be that the price of BTC reflects the attitude of funds within the cryptocurrency circle, while the price of MSTR reflects the attitude of more traditional and conservative US stock users with a larger audience towards the cryptocurrency circle. There are indeed many similarities and differences between 2025 and 2021, such as precisely capturing the 4-year cycle curse. Although the rise did not start as scheduled, the decline is possible 🤡。 But in reality, after ETF approval and recent stablecoin bill markups, the fundamentals of the Big Dipper are much stronger than in 2021, and institutional participation is also much higher than at that time. Although Trump's existence is far more risky than Biden's, after all, it is now on the eve of easing and was in the interest rate increase cycle at that time. MSTR itself may be more in line with the trend of the S&P 500, while traditional investors in the past viewed MSTR as a spokesperson or leverage strategy for Bitcoin US stocks. But with the advancement of the encryption bill, it seems that they are no longer bound to save the country on a curve, and can simply purchase Bitcoin to earn profits. From a purely macro risk perspective, it is evident that the market has become desensitized to the concept of a tariff war. Yesterday, the 50% tariff imposed on Europe and Canada caused a sudden drop in the pie, but by now, only half a day has passed (and it is still the weekend) and it has rebounded to 109. Although my short position is still tied up, I dare not expect a significant drop for the time being.