Think the constellation of factors and is likely to push real rates higher in the short term. At the same time, I don't think the economy can stomach 2.5-3%+ real rates without doomer fan fiction levels of base money printing, which isn't going to happen from here without real Depression risk. That then raises the question of how do we increase growth. This is one thing I don't quite understand about the "run it hot" guys feeding off of what Bessent said the other day about growing the economy faster than debt. He is saying that, okay, but how is that supposed to happen? They're currently running a budget which does not include massive stimulus for the households who would need it to drive that kind of growth like we saw post covid. Bank deregulation and tax cuts and shit like that are not remotely enough to sustain growth, but could cause a one-time boost. When the next budget comes up, there will be no impetus to create massive base money stimulus with current deficits unless something is going wrong, at which point we're in trouble anyway. But what we are doing *for sure* is running at wartime deficit levels with no war and the bond market is slowly leaking confidence in our fiscal rectitude. Where does big stimulus come from? This all leaves the Fed in a bind because the economy is too hot to ease, but too K shaped for them to be overly hawkish. So they're just stuck waiting for something to change and push them to act. And with homeowners having historic insulation from interest rates, whenever the Fed *does* respond they'll be restricted from providing any kind of material refinancing relief. Think "run it hot" is a fun slogan but right now I'm not seeing a game plan for achieving it. Open to hearing counter views.