HTX DeepThink: Cold US Japan Long Term Bond Auction Causes Liquidity Concerns, Bitcoin Remains Strong

Golden Financial News, HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ ChloeTalk1) pointed out in this column that last week's auction of US and Japan's long-term treasury bond bonds was both cold, the yield of US 20-year treasury bond hit 5%, and Japan's long-term interest rate hit a new 25 year high, leading to rising market concerns about the global liquidity squeeze. However, the US Treasury Department still primarily absorbs funds through 3-6 month T-bills, mainly "draining" money market funds rather than risk assets; the Federal Reserve can also suspend balance sheet cuts or activate repurchase windows at any time, with limited pressure on risk assets. Bitcoin has shown strong resilience as a result: spot ETFs continue to have small net inflows, over 70% of Bitcoin on the chain has been deposited for more than half a year, exchange balances continue to decrease, and funds from Asia and the Middle East are buying on dips. Even though net financing of US Treasury bonds may rise to $1.25 trillion between July and September, short-term bond issuances and buybacks have weakened the direct pressure on high beta assets. The passive holdings of ETFs and the dispersed selling pressure of "hard chips", combined with the expectation of US dollar depreciation, still make Bitcoin strong.