This is a concerning trend: Since March, 2-year US economic growth expectations have declined at their fastest rate in 3 years. At the same time, the US 10-year real note yield has risen ~40 basis points, to 2.2%. In the past, rising GDP growth projections have triggered an increase in bond yields as the odds of the Fed raising rates increases. This time, the inverse relationship is likely related to bond investors' growing concerns about the fiscal situation in the US. If this trend continues, we could see the 10Y note yield approach 5.00%. Keep watching the bond market.