CBO projections consistently underestimate the long-term increase of US federal debt: In 2001, the CBO forecasted federal debt held by the public would decline by -2.3 trillion, to 0.9 trillion, by 2011. Instead, actual federal debt skyrocketed to 10.4 trillion, or +9.5 trillion more than projected. In 2018, the CBO estimated public debt would reach 22.9 trillion by 2024. Actual debt hit 28.2 trillion last year, or +5.3 trillion above the initial estimate. This is largely because the CBO never anticipates recessions or major fiscal policy changes before they are officially announced. Long-term debt projections are likely well below what will actually materialize.