The United States releases PCE index tonight, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window may be closing The United States will release tonight the Federal Reserve's most favored inflation indicator - the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). The market expects that the month on month growth rate of PCE price index in April will be only 0.1%, and the year-on-year growth rate will drop from 2.3% to 2.2%, approaching the level before the COVID-19 epidemic. In terms of core aspects, excluding fluctuations in food and energy prices, the expected month on month growth rate of core PCE is 0.1%, but the year-on-year growth rate will still remain at a high level of 2.6%. At present, the importance of PCE is due to the Federal Reserve's tendency to use it to measure potential trends in inflation. Analysis suggests that the inflationary effects of the Trump administration's tariffs have just begun to penetrate into the US economy. Most economists predict that even if Trump eases some tariffs, inflation may still rebound to 3% in a few months. As the core PCE in the United States remains stuck in the range of 2.8% -2.6% for six consecutive months, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window is closing. Although some Federal Reserve officials still hold a positive attitude towards interest rate cuts, the interest rate futures market shows that traders' predictions for the probability of a September rate cut have plummeted from 68% a week ago to 47%. The US economy is standing at the crossroads of a new inflation cycle.