see http://Pump.fun To raise 1 billion US dollars by issuing coins at a valuation of 4 billion US dollars is a mixed bag of options. It's hard to imagine that a MEME launch platform's valuation would surpass that of most DeFi blue chip protocols. Is this sky high valuation reasonable? Here are a few viewpoints: 1) The market valuation of inflated bubbles is quite unreasonable From the data, http://Pump.fun It is indeed the biggest beneficiary of this MEME super cycle. The peak monthly income once reached tens of millions of dollars. This wealth creation effect is phenomenal in the traditional Internet. But, http://Pump.fun The attention economy business model is an irrational product of the short-term high Fomo that relies on the market MEME coin. Simply put, it is traffic monetization driven by "gambling". This means that, http://Pump.fun The monetization ability of the business model is entirely a product of the short-term market spotlight effect, rather than a sustainable and normalized profit logic. Based on this, is the valuation of 4B reasonable? This pricing far exceeds the pricing of most DeFi blue chip protocols, and it is hard to imagine that the valuation of a platform that has been manipulated and exploited would crush blue chip innovative protocols. Once the MEME craze subsides or the market returns to rationality, http://Pump.fun The income model will collapse instantly. That's why we chose to issue coins at this moment when the MEME trend is cooling down http://Pump.fun What exactly is poured into the market? 2) Fragile commercial moats are easily overtaken http://Pump.fun The success may seem accidental, but it is inevitable. It captures the technological dividends of Solana's high performance and low cost, as well as the era dividend of MEME culture moving from niche to mass. But how deep is the moat of this' first mover advantage 'worth questioning? Technically, similar coin issuance platforms can be quickly replicated; In terms of operation, the MEME launch platform is essentially a traffic business, and once hotspots shift or regulation tightens, the cost of user migration is extremely low. More importantly, http://Pump.fun The dependence on the Solana ecosystem is extremely high, and once there are significant changes in the Solana ecosystem, the fragility of its business model will be exposed. This business model built on the infrastructure of others is essentially a 'dependent' business, let alone a highly unsustainable one. How can it sustain an independent valuation of $4B? 3) It is difficult for Launchpad's toolized properties to form their own ecosystem http://Pump.fun At present, making money is just a tool for issuing coins, and to support the market valuation of 4B, at least a huge MEME economic ecosystem is needed. It's hard to imagine what a financing scale of $1B would entail, knowing that it's impossible to do, yet still taking action? Little do they know, there is a paradox in transforming pure Launchpad into a complex MEME economic ecosystem: the core of MEME culture is precisely simple, direct, and viral dissemination, and excessive functional stacking will only make the platform lose its original "wildness". In fact, MEME strikes a balance between its "short, flat, and fast" characteristics and the long-term value accumulation of the platform. Products that attempt to evolve from tools to platforms often lose themselves in the pursuit of being "big and comprehensive", ultimately falling into four different categories. http://Pump.fun Holding a billion dollars, it is likely that one is heading towards such a fate. 4) Overvaluation can disrupt the original value innovation system http://Pump.fun The overvaluation of the cryptocurrency market is sending a dangerous signal to the entire industry: in the current Crypto ecosystem, the value of "traffic aggregation+speculative monetization" may exceed that of "technological innovation+infrastructure". May I ask, when creating gambling platforms is more profitable than promoting technological innovation, who would still gnaw on the hard bone of Infra? It's hard to imagine what catastrophic industry chain reaction this new value orientation will have. On the one hand, more capital and talent will flow into MEME related infrastructure construction; On the other hand, it may also exacerbate the trend of "entertainmentization" in the industry, marginalizing true technological innovation. in general, http://Pump.fun The issuance of coins is not only a sign of the maturity of the MEME economy, but also a signal flare of the decline of industry values. The key is whether it can truly build a sustainable business moat after obtaining huge capital. Otherwise, this distorted valuation will bring great innovation disasters to the entire industry, foreshadowing a more utilitarian, short-sighted, and far from the origin of tech geeks in the future of Crypto.