Today, we are all discussing the issuance of Pumpfun coin, which is expected to raise $1B of funds at a valuation of $4B. Let's see if Pump is worth 4B. According to the preferred benchmarking valuation method of Financial Lao Deng, first list all cash flow items (Cash Cow) and sort them by annualized income. The unified calculation method for annualized income here is: past 30 day income * 12. This estimation method is highly influenced by market conditions, but mainly discusses relative valuation rather than profitability, so as long as everyone follows this algorithm, it is sufficient. As shown in the following data: Pump Fun's annualized revenue over the past 30 days is 77.98m, which corresponds to an FDV/annualized revenue ratio of 64 for FDV 5B; It belongs to a relatively high level. But there are also ratios similar to ENA and Pendle that are higher. So I believe that in the long run, Pump is definitely not worth this valuation, and its revenue certainty is not as good as DeFi leaders such as Ray/Cake; But if the market is good, the team will manufacture FOMO, and it may even double. At this valuation, combined with the sentiment on X, I don't think it's necessary to be overly bearish or even open short. Hold cash and observe its changes.