The starting point of Bitcoin's structural slow bull market has actually taken shape after the GENIUS Act was passed I think we are at the starting point of Bitcoin's long cycle, even a slow bull cycle spanning ten years. From a phenomenological perspective, the key turning point that led to the formation of this trend was the approval of the Bitcoin ETF by the end of 2023. From that moment on, the market attributes of Bitcoin began to undergo a qualitative change, gradually transitioning from a completely risky asset to a safe haven asset At present, Bitcoin is in the early stage of becoming a safe haven asset, but at the same time, it is entering a period of interest rate cuts in the United States, so Bitcoin is in a good growth space. The role of Bitcoin in asset allocation has shifted from a "speculative object" to an "asset allocation tool", stimulating longer-term demand growth. The evolution of this asset attribute happens to occur at a turning point when monetary policy is about to shift from tight to loose. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is not an abstract macro background, but a fund price signal that has a substantial impact on Bitcoin. Under this mechanism, Bitcoin exhibits a new operational characteristic: whenever there are signs of a pullback in the market after emotions become overheated, and when the price is about to enter the edge of a bear market, there will be a wave of "liquidity" entering the market, interrupting the downward trend. We often say that there is sufficient liquidity in the market but no willingness to bet, but this statement is not entirely true. Due to the evaporation of valuation moisture and the lack of technology implementation, other counterfeit encrypted assets cannot find PMF and temporarily lack mid-term allocation logic; Bitcoin has become the 'only deterministic asset that can be bet on' at this point. Therefore, as long as the easing expectation remains and ETF continues to absorb funds, it will be extremely difficult for Bitcoin to form a traditional bear market in the entire interest rate reduction cycle. At most, it will experience a phased callback, or partial foam clearing due to sudden macro events (such as tariff shocks and geographical risk aversion). This means that Bitcoin will cross the entire interest rate cut cycle as a 'safe haven asset', and its price anchoring logic will also change accordingly - gradually transitioning from 'risk appetite driven' to 'macro certainty supported'. And once this interest rate cut cycle ends, with the passage of time, the maturity of ETFs, and the increase in institutional allocation weights, Bitcoin will also complete its initial transformation from a risky asset to a safe haven asset. Next, as the next interest rate hike cycle begins, Bitcoin is likely to be trusted by the market for the first time as a "safe haven under interest rate hikes". This will not only enhance its allocation position in traditional markets, but is also more likely to enable it to gain a partial capital siphon effect in competition with traditional safe haven assets such as gold and bonds, thus opening a structural bull cycle spanning ten years. Looking ahead to the development of Bitcoin in many years or even 10 years is too distant. It is better to first look at the possible triggers that may lead to a significant decline in Bitcoin before the United States truly turns to consistency easing From the first half of this year, tariffs are undoubtedly the most disruptive event to market sentiment. However, in reality, if we view tariffs as a benign adjustment tool for Bitcoin, we may be able to examine their potential impact from different perspectives in the future Secondly, the passage of the GENIUS bill marks the inevitable decline in the status of the US dollar, and actively embraces the development of Crypto finance, amplifying the multiplier effect of the US dollar on the chain