Quantile Model Update Current Price: 105K Risk Score: 60% In its history, Bitcoin has typically had difficulty moving from the Transition zone to the Acceleration zone. A few failed attempts before a clear breakout have been common. But curiously, the last cycle only showed a minor resistance at the entry to Acceleration. What is different this cycle is that we are observing three failed attempts. Every time, right around the boundary of Acceleration (confirming that this quantile level is meaningful). But once a clean breakout is achieved, we are off to the races. Our macro analysis at BIR shows a positive liquidity regime beginning in Q3 and Q4, which clearly aligns with the top timing of the cycle model.