Analysis of the Impact of US CPI Data on Bitcoin Prices Today is June 11, 2025, and the United States is about to release its May CPI data (previous value 2.3%, expected 2.5%). The following are three scenarios for predicting the trend of Bitcoin: 1. Actual CPI is lower than expected (e.g. 2.3% -2.4%) Short term impact: It is highly likely to trigger a rapid rise in Bitcoin. The market will interpret this as a signal of cooling inflation, increasing bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts, leading to a weakening of the US dollar and an increase in the attractiveness of risk assets. Technical aspect: If it breaks through the recent resistance level (such as $94000), it may quickly hit the $100000 mark; If the data is significantly lower than expected, or if there is a short-term rebound after the CPI data in April 2025 (when BTC rose 8%). Capital flow: Institutions may accelerate the inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs (referring to the case of net inflows exceeding $5 million for four consecutive days after the release of CPI in April). Long term logic: The continuous cooling of inflation may consolidate BTC's safe haven attribute as a "digital gold", coupled with policy support such as the US "digital gold strategy", strengthening the long-term bullish trend. 2. Actual CPI meets expectations (2.5%) Short term impact: The market has already digested expectations in advance, and there may be volatile market conditions. It is necessary to combine the core CPI data to determine: If the core CPI remains above 3%: The Federal Reserve may maintain a hawkish stance, and Bitcoin may backtest to the lower edge of the $83000 to $94000 range. If the core CPI falls synchronously: the technical aspect may dominate the trend, and BTC may remain stable at $100000 support, or continue to consolidate at a high level and wait for new catalysts (such as ETH technology upgrade, institutional increase in holdings news). Market sentiment: On chain data shows that BTC continues to flow out of the exchange (current balance of 2.177 million, down 10000 per week), with long-term holders locked in their chips and limited short-term selling pressure. 3. Actual CPI is higher than expected (e.g. 2.6%+) Short term shock: Bitcoin is likely to come under pressure and fall. Rising inflation will strengthen the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates or delaying interest rate cuts, and the strengthening of the US dollar will suppress risk assets. ◦ Historical reference: After an unexpected 0.5% increase in CPI in February 2025, Bitcoin fell by 3% for a short period of time, and panic caused a surge in multiple orders (similar to the fragile structure of 67% of the current network's multiple orders). Key support: Pay attention to $83000 (strong technical support in June 2025), if it falls below it, it may trigger algorithmic trading sell-off and further explore $75000. Mid term strategy: If inflation continues to rebound and BTC enters a correction cycle, funds may shift towards gold, which has stronger anti inflation properties.