WHAT ISRAEL’S ATTACK MEANS FOR OIL PRICES Oil prices are rising sharply after Israel's strike on Iran, with Brent crude hitting 78.50 a barrel — the highest since January. Here's how the situation could affect the market: 🔸 Forget sub-60 oil this year, says Tom Holland of Gavekal Research, calling Israel’s attack "aggressive and preemptive." 🔸 Prices are likely to stay high due to the risk of further strikes on oil infrastructure. Holland sees Brent averaging 67.50–70 in the second half of 2025. 🔸 A major risk is the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for 25% of global oil and 20% of LNG shipments, notes Capital Economics. 🔸 A serious disruption there could drive oil to 120 a barrel, warns ING’s Warren Patterson. OPEC might boost production if supply is disrupted, but broader regional conflict would limit its ability to stabilize markets.