It's rare for anyone to remember the last drop. My concept of the last drop has always been economic recession, which means that without an economic recession, it wouldn't be considered the "last drop" in my cognitive system. The reason why I say this is because historically, when interest rates are high (especially above 5%), the probability of the economy eventually falling into recession exceeds 70% (some statistics even approach 80%). Statistically speaking, there have been approximately 9 complete cycles (excluding brief touches) in which the Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target rate at 5% or higher, with at least 7 ultimately leading to an economic recession. The recession caused by high interest rates and the oil crisis in 1973 High interest rates in 1980 led to two consecutive recessions The Gulf War in 1990 led to a decline The IT foam burst in 2000, leading to recession The 2007 mortgage crisis turned into a financial crisis, leading to a recession Most of them are under high interest rates, and the peak interest rate of 5.5% this time is historically considered a high interest rate trend. Therefore, according to historical laws, the probability of economic recession is indeed high. Of course, this does not necessarily mean that there will be a recession now, but it must be acknowledged that recession is one of the probability paths that cannot be ignored at present, and such recessions often occur simultaneously with interest rate cuts. It is not because interest rate cuts lead to economic recession, but because economic recession forces the Federal Reserve to enter the stage of interest rate cuts. More importantly, only a recession will encourage the Federal Reserve to release funds, especially since QE is almost always used after a recession. From a historical perspective, a recession itself is also one of the most effective means of suppressing inflation. Therefore, for me, a recession is the last drop, and only after this round of decline will the market truly usher in a liquidity turning point. The above are all my personal thoughts and may not be correct. This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex