One picture to understand today's macro situation The Federal Reserve's policy remains unchanged: The market expects a probability of 96.9% for the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in June. Despite repeated pressure from Trump to cut interest rates, mild inflation data (May CPI 4% year-on-year) and uncertainty about tariff policies have led the Fed to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Institutions predict that the interest rate cut in 2025 may be reduced to 50-75 basis points, depending on economic data. Geopolitical risk escalation: Trump claims that the United States "may" intervene in the conflict between Israel and Iran, and supports Putin as a mediator, but vetoes Israel's plan to assassinate Iranian leaders, believing that this move will exacerbate the conflict. The conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a deterioration of the situation in the Middle East. After Israel bombed Iran's nuclear facilities, Iran launched a counterattack, and the market is concerned that the Strait of Hormuz may be blocked, resulting in the interruption of about 40% of global crude oil transportation. Safe haven assets all rise: Gold hits a historic high due to conflicts and expectations of interest rate cuts (spot price breaks through $3450/ounce), while gold prices may challenge $3750. Oil prices surged by 13% due to geopolitical premiums, with Brent crude rising to $76. JPMorgan warns that if the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, oil prices may soar to $120. Market outlook: Short term geopolitics remains a core variable, and if the conflict eases, the focus will shift to the game between Federal Reserve policies and economic data. The overall risk appetite of the market is still suppressed.