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The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 99.8%

金色财经
金色财经|Jun 16, 2025 22:12
According to a report by Golden Finance, according to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.8%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 0.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 87.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 12.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0%.
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Timeline

Jul 16, 20:38【Inflation may have reached a turning point】
Jul 16, 20:03【Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic will not cut interest rates temporarily】
Jul 16, 19:19【The Federal Reserve still hasn't cut interest rates】
Jul 16, 18:26【Inflation rate drops to lowest point in 4 years】
Jul 16, 16:56【Trump counterattacks the prospect of dismissing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell】
Jul 16, 16:10【The possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September surges to 63%】
Jul 16, 15:50【Powell's fate is basically predetermined】
Jul 16, 15:46【The possibility of Powell stepping down as Federal Reserve Chairman increases】
Jul 16, 15:43【The probability of Powell being removed from the position of Federal Reserve Chairman has risen to 38%】
Jul 16, 15:42【The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is close to 70%】

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