Focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy press conference tomorrow night: Powell's cautious choices under pressure 1、 Key Background Triple pressure: Trump's pressure to cut interest rates, the Iran conflict pushing up oil price risks, and divergent market expectations for interest rate cuts. Data contradiction: The low unemployment rate of 4.2% coexists with a slowdown in employment in May, and inflation is disturbed by tariffs and geopolitical factors. 2、 Core highlights of the conference Dot plot prediction: It is expected that there will be two interest rate cuts in March 2025. If the two committee members turn around, it may drop to one, directly affecting market pricing. Economic outlook adjustment: Goldman Sachs expects inflation expectations to rise from 2.8% to 3%, GDP growth rate to be lowered to 1.5%, and unemployment rate to reach 4.5%. 3、 Powell's Policy Logic Short term no action: It is expected to reiterate that there is no rush to cut interest rates, as the current weak inflation but lagging impact of tariffs remains to be observed. Term factor: Before stepping down in 2026, it is necessary to maintain the credibility of anti inflation measures. In history, Federal Reserve chairmen tend to adopt a cautious stance towards the end of their term. 4、 Market expectations Traders are less likely to cut interest rates twice before the end of the year and are more inclined to cut interest rates once, reflecting a wait-and-see attitude towards the independence of the Federal Reserve.