Bitcoin is expected to experience significant fluctuations around the end of this month (Detailed interpretation of current market information) Beware of the 'black swan' sounding the alarm again 🚨 In recent days, Bitcoin has been affected by the "Iran Israel" conflict, resulting in frequent high volatility market trends in the short term However, both long and short positions are still constrained by the internal framework of the box, and have not formed a significant unilateral trend Inside the box, the bulls are currently slightly weak, as shown in the chart. The high points formed since May 22nd are gradually decreasing, continuously forming lower highs. However, the low points inside the box have not improved much. The current 4-hour low point is the defensive zone for bulls, located at the 101K and 104K horizontal neck lines, respectively The current internal end of the box has formed a convergence trend prototype of a descending right angled triangle, and the structure is not yet fully constructed and needs further observation The volume delta trading volume difference in the following figure shows that since June, the overall selling volume has significantly increased, and the bearish sentiment in the market has dominated the movement of funds However, the price performance did not form a unilateral downward trend. Through ETF and other institutional related Bitcoin buying data, the market benefited from institutional buying to absorb selling pressure, so it did not cause a unilateral downward trend in the market. However, it also failed to reverse the bearish sentiment of selling At present, the market is in a state of long short confrontation, and a triangular convergence trend is quietly forming at the end of the box. The short-term long short game has entered a white hot state, which has also intensified the time schedule for market direction selection. However, whether it can ultimately break through or fall below the box remains to be seen At present, I have not made any personal operations and am still monitoring the development of the market. After further confirmation of clear structural signals, a new trading plan will be formulated Overall, the current situation inside the box is showing a weak bullish trend, with a significant bearish pressure In addition, in my tweet on June 16th at https://(x.com)/PPai_Crypto/status/1934613293504581655, I mentioned the importance of preventing "black swans" and the view that risk control is greater than everything else. Our general expectation for the "China US game" is optimistic, but what if? After all, it is no longer just a tariff negotiation, it has escalated into an industrial structure game, and even continues to rise We also believe that there will be no or very difficult situation of a full-scale war in the "Iran Israel" conflict, let alone the possibility of a "nuclear" strike, but what if? After all, Japan never thought that a little boy would fall on their head back then Regarding the "black swan" is indeed a subjective personal opinion at present, but before the tide of the game recedes, it is difficult for the risk market to land safely, and there will always be the possibility of a "black swan". Therefore, risk control is always the top priority, let alone the autumn of chaos Similarly, the awareness of "crisis" is a state where "danger" and "opportunity" coexist. The key to the market being able to "turn danger into opportunity" lies in the willingness to accept orders once a black swan occurs, and the willingness to follow market sentiment once the danger is lifted. However, this super good opportunity to pick up money has only happened once in history, which was the global liquidity crisis on March 12, 2020. The risk market triggered circuit breakers multiple times, and crude oil even fell to negative numbers. It is truly a witness to history If there is a clear signal on the market, it is still necessary to take action when necessary, but risk control must be stricter than ever before risk management! risk management! risk management!