🚨 Big Day Today. Today we'll get another Rate cut decision, FOMC Press conference and the Fed's Economic Projections. Here we'll see what the Fed projects in terms of the GDP and inflation forecasts for the time ahead. Afterwards we'll hear Jerome Powell discuss the data and their projections. I don't think we'll get a convincing dovish or hawkish tone from Powell. On one hand we got some economic data slowing down and we had very good inflation reads (both reasons that support cutting rates). On the other hand, we have just seen the middle eastern conflict escalate and we've seen the price of Oil increase by over 20% in the last 2 weeks alone. Both of these are inflationary. Additionally, the Fed still seems uncertain about the potential effects of tariffs on inflation. Therefore I'm assuming he will just say more of the same where they wait for the data to come in and not give too much forward guidance until they are absolutely certain that it's time to cut rates. So I doubt he'll give the market a lot of clarity today. The market currently prices the odds of a rate cut today at 0.1%. That moves to 14.5% by July and 64% by September. By the July meeting we'll probably get a better view of the rest of 2025.