QCP Capital: Multiple reasons have led to reduced market volatility, and the countdown to the restart of the trade war has entered

BlockBeats News: On June 19th, QCP Capital announced on its official channel that, in macro events, the Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark interest rate unchanged as widely expected by the market. But the policy committee still maintains a hawkish stance, emphasizing high short-term inflation expectations and listing tariffs as a key upward risk. Officials reiterated their preference for a wait-and-see strategy, awaiting further clarification of the inflation path. The market's sensitivity to geopolitical headlines continues to decline, including ongoing tensions with Iran. The countdown to the trade war has begun. As the deadline for the EU tariff suspension on July 9th approaches, the United States has only reached one agreement among nearly 195 potential trading partners. The negotiations are deadlocked, and news leaks have become a recurring theme. The market's response to progressive tariff news is becoming increasingly sluggish. The following time points are still crucial: On July 14th, the European Union plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the United States. On August 12th, the 90 day tariff truce between China and the United States ends. On August 31st, the long-term tariff exemption for Chinese imported goods expires These timing points may trigger periodic downward fluctuations in risk assets. However, QCP's benchmark scenario remains optimistic: given the intersection of interests and demands between the two sides, the US China trade negotiations are more likely to reach a stable outcome, which will provide support for the continued rise of risk assets. At present, the market risk reversal indicator remains negative (the premium of put options is higher than that of call options), reflecting the cautious market layout and expectations of short-term pullbacks.