I've been quite tired these past few days. I recovered before everyone got sick, but I always feel like it's a bit weak. Apart from chatting with Guilin over the phone about short-term trends, I haven't posted anything today. Although I posted a lot before yesterday, there are still more thoughts about the Middle East and the Federal Reserve meeting that I haven't had time to write about. Before going to bed today, I'll think about what I wrote. Today's market situation has also been seen by everyone. It's inexplicably pulled up and down. If there is no reason, it's not. It's because Trump suddenly became soft on Iran and said that he would not move Iran if he went to play golf on weekends. This is obviously a feigned excuse. It seems cool and relaxed, but there are rational calculations behind it. From the quotation, we can see that joining the war will do more harm than good for the United States. Trump's action shows that his reason online is not being coerced by the lobby. And the decline is clearly following the high opening and low falling of the US stock market, and when it reached its lowest point, financial media reported a "Federal Reserve: There has been a substantial deterioration in liquidity in the US stock, corporate bond, and municipal bond markets. In fact, Da Bing has been leading a group of followers in the market for almost a week now, and the market is indeed becoming increasingly illiquid. Apart from institutional whales constantly buying and selling, the participation of individual investors is becoming weaker, and the chain is in a state of silence. When the United States does not face the Iran Israel conflict and Israel's air defense forces are gradually depleted; While the Federal Reserve continues to sit still and wait for the crisis to come to an end to save the world and pick peaches; When the Federal Reserve keeps using inflation as a shield, but in reality, inflation has risen by 20% in the past five years, the policy of not cutting interest rates is more of a selfish act. The market may continue to be in a period of rapid rise and fall caused by unhealthy low liquidity, as well as in a circle of reports to warm up and rush up special targets. Next, the market will probably continue to be boring for some time, neither rising nor falling, and Trump will finally have a high probability of "TACO" on the Iran issue. On the issue of interest rate reduction, the Federal Reserve is also expected to continue to take the delaying policy. Master Trump Bao is waiting for the other party to make mistakes before playing the white knight. After the stablecoin bill is passed, the focus will shift back to the Beautiful Bill, where there may be variables lurking. The final market oscillates between these factors until one of them suddenly undergoes a qualitative change, triggering a chain reaction. Even leading to an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, otherwise a three-month period of sideways volatility could drive everyone crazy.