Although everyone's attention has been focused on Iran recently, there have been constant voices before the June 18th Federal Reserve meeting saying that the interest rate cut was too late. If it weren't for tariffs, the June 18th Federal Reserve would have already lowered interest rates. Nick, the mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve, also issued two consecutive articles today suggesting that the Federal Reserve is preparing to cut interest rates in July, but at the same time, he said that there are differences within the Federal Reserve, and the officials who support the interest rate cut are all appointed by Trump. I checked and found that, except for Federal Reserve Governor Bauman who was pushed out today, who believes that tariffs actually have little impact and that labor market risks may increase, he supports a rate cut as early as July. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller made it clear in an interview with CNBC that a rate cut could occur as early as July San Francisco Fed President Mary Daley said that if the labor market shows weakness before the fall, a rate cut may be appropriate. She believes that the economic fundamentals are moving towards interest rate cuts, and the impact of tariffs on inflation is limited. It is actually difficult to know if this is a deliberate expectation management by the Federal Reserve in response to the previously mentioned three-month difficult and awkward window period, after all, no matter what these two people say, it cannot affect the collective decision-making of the Federal Reserve's ticket committee. From the previously released dot matrix chart, it can be seen that the situation has not suddenly become optimistic and there will be a rate cut in July. So, compared to September, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates earlier than the July rate cut, Iran's emergency handling, and the follow-up promotion of the Beautiful Bill. These three factors are combined, and the market may really have a big impact. The perfect story in Trump's eyes may be that Iran suddenly did something big, which gave Trump Powell a step to abandon the past grievances and work together to cut interest rates urgently, and the two courts quickly passed the beautiful bill without any more wrangling or playing football. All this may be the motivation of Trump's sudden exit from Iran. He wants to use Iran as a guide to pry the US forward according to his ideas. But even if this is true, it is actually very difficult to achieve. Although the turmoil in the Middle East may drive safe haven funds into the United States and lower US bond prices (which is happening), if the rise in oil prices is transmitted to inflation, it may even lead to interest rate hikes.