As the chart below shows, the CUMULATIVE attacks on Powell and the calls for immediate rate cuts appear to be swaying market opinion. Less than a week ago, the probability of a July rate cut slumped to just 8% when Powell made it clear in his press conference (June 18) that no cuts were coming. After a week of numerous attacks by Trump (calling Powell "too late," a numbskull and, a "stupid person"), Howard Lutnick with at least two critical posts of Powell, Don Jr (today), Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) calling for Powell to be fired (June 20), and two Fed Governors saying July might be in play for a cut (Trump appointees Waller and Bowman), the probability of a rate cut touched 27% today. It's not enough to say it will happen, but it's rapidly moving in that direction. This is occurring when there has been little economic news to influence monetary policy. If anything, Powell's testimony over the last two days has attempted to close the door on immediate rate cuts. The market is not listening. Earlier today, President Trump made this known at his NATO Press Conference: President Donald Trump says he has three or four people in mind to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires next year. This sets up the June payroll (July 3) and CPI (July 15) reports as critical for near-term monetary policy. If either or both are weaker than expected, this will turn the pressure white hot for a July cut. Trump is close to picking Powell's successor, and if potential candidates scream loud enough for that cut, they might get Trump's attention and get the nod. Restated, if either payrolls or CPI are weak, Powell will be the blood in the water, and the sharks will be those wanting Trump to pick them to replace him.