Xiaomo predicts that the US economy will experience a stagflation style slowdown due to tariffs, with a 40% chance of recession

According to BlockBeats, on June 26th, JPMorgan analysts stated in a mid year outlook research report on Wednesday that US tariff policies may drag down global economic growth and reignite inflation in the United States. The bank believes that the probability of the United States falling into a recession in the second half of this year is 40%. The expected growth rate of the US economy in 2025 is 1.3%, lower than the 2% forecast at the beginning of the year. The stagflation effect brought about by the tariff increase is the reason why we have lowered our GDP growth forecast for this year, "the report said. JPMorgan Chase is bearish on the US dollar, citing a slowdown in US economic growth and support for growth policies outside the US that will boost other currencies, including emerging market currencies. JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points between December and spring 2026. Analysts say that if an economic recession or slowdown exceeds expectations, it will trigger a more aggressive cycle of interest rate cuts. However, the bank remains optimistic about the US stock market, citing the resilience of consumers and the economy despite policy uncertainty. (Golden Ten)