Will the Iraq conflict erupt again in the short term? Last night, because of Trump's inverted speech, the market was very worried about the resumption of the Israeli Iranian conflict. At least from Israel's information, the bombing still caused considerable damage to Iran's nuclear facilities. Previously, we talked about https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/1936978200397238553? S=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A As long as it can delay Iran's nuclear program for a few years, it can basically achieve what Trump wants. Since the Aksa flood operation in October 2023, Neta has gradually dismantled the "Shia arc" that Iran has built over the past decade. The recent two weeks of operations have severely damaged the command system of the Iranian armed forces, destroying 30-40% of Iran's missile launchers and consuming a small half of its missile inventory. If we want to go further, it would be to change the Iranian regime. We have discussed before that Iran has over one million square kilometers of territory, tens of millions of people, and hundreds of thousands of armed forces. Merely relying on bombing can only deter a regime that cannot be changed, unless ground forces are deployed. But the step of deploying ground troops: Neta is powerless (Israel does not have such strong long-range delivery capabilities and naval power); Trump is forceful and unintentional (Trump does not want to go further due to the tearing of the MAGA community in the United States). Iran has just suffered a heavy blow and needs time to recover. The damage within Israel is also significant, and there is great public resentment. Neta also needs to be appeased. From this perspective, it may be difficult for further conflicts to erupt in the short term. The later instigation of a color revolution to intensify internal divisions in Iran may be more motivated by the United States and Israel. And this time, the leadership of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Armed Forces underwent a major change, with only hardliners coming up. It is possible to have another dispute after waiting for both sides to lie dormant for a period of time and regain their health. Let's first take a look at the progress of the ceasefire and Iran nuclear negotiations next week.