Analysis: Bitcoin's technical support is stable, but its liquidity lags behind

According to Matrixport's latest weekly report, after the FOMC meeting on June 18, 2025, the Federal Reserve shifted from an hawkish stance to a dovish one, with multiple board members expressing loose talk. Powell also showed a more conciliatory attitude during congressional hearings. The market expects a low probability of interest rate cuts in July, but signals of policy adjustments in September may be released earlier. Inflation has dropped to 2.38%, approaching the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, and the unemployment rate has remained at 4.2% for 12 consecutive months. Despite the unrealized risk of tariff inflation, market expectations for the Fed's dovish move continue to strengthen. At the beginning of this week, after the US airstrike on Iran, Bitcoin fell to its 21 week moving average ($98532), which is a key technical support level. If the price returns above the moving average, Bitcoin may benefit from the Fed's dovish tone, and the signal of subsequent interest rate cuts is clear, which is expected to further rise. In addition, the inflow of stablecoin funds is still intermittent, with Tether adding approximately $12 million in new coins, while Circle has almost stopped issuing. The simultaneous increase in volume of stablecoins and broader liquidity is crucial for the rise of the cryptocurrency market. Current traders are still focused on Bitcoin, which performs significantly better than other cryptocurrency assets.