What is the probability of Matt's "double reed play"? Pure performance double reed: 40% Basis: On June 5th, Musk called for the impeachment of Trump, and on June 11th, the White House announced a "private conversation settlement" between the two sides. Repeatedly influencing the market through the 'conflict reconciliation' script. SpaceX still holds billions of dollars in contracts with NASA, and Tesla has not lost any federal purchase orders. Real conflict probability: 60% Policy conflicts of interest, substantial losses to Musk, and evidence of political infighting.