I just had a meeting all night and came back to find that the June ADP data was a bit explosive, recording -33000 people, which means that private sector employment not only did not increase, but also experienced a net decrease. A negative ADP value is usually a precursor to a weakening of non farm employment. If Thursday's non farm employment report continues to fall significantly short of expectations, market confidence in an economic soft landing will begin to collapse. It should be a sign of recession, but why did the market rise? As the market shifts towards betting on an economic hard landing, rapid interest rate cuts, and expectations of a new round of QE, if this path is really taken, it means that the upcoming interest rate cuts may not be a good thing, and will shift from normal interest rate cuts due to reduced inflation to defensive interest rate cuts to prevent economic recession. Of course, there have been many times when ADP data and non farm data are completely different, so the specific non farm data still needs to be announced on Thursday. The current market is a typical expectation of bad data being good data. This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex