The just released June US non farm payroll and unemployment rate data: 1. More than expected new non farm payroll additions and lower than expected unemployment rate indicate a strong labor market. Judging solely from this data, it greatly increases the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in July. Of course, personally, I didn't really think much about the interest rate cut in July before, but expected it in September. 2. It is not entirely true to say that the data is completely negative: 1) The year-on-year and month on month growth of hourly wages in June was lower than expected, and the wage growth rate determines the public's consumption ability (whether they can keep up with inflation), especially for the middle and low-income groups who have very little asset income and rely mainly on wages. 2) Looking closely at the sub items of newly added non-agricultural employment: manufacturing employment actually decreased by 7000 people, while private non-agricultural employment increased by 74000 people, which was 105000 people lower than expected. The main source of the unexpected increase in non-agricultural employment was the government's partial addition of 73000 new jobs, which was only 7000 in May (it seems that the government's efficiency reform has become lonely). From this sub category, employment is not as strong either. 3. The above mentioned that tonight's non farm payroll unemployment rate data has reduced the probability of a rate cut in July, which is also the premise that Powell discussed in his speech about future rate cuts: either the labor market slows down or inflation weakens. So the market should look at the inflation data for July, which is also the impact of the 10% tariff on inflation, which I personally believe is the most important macro variable in the third quarter. 4. The Cleveland Fed said that the inflation forecast for June is higher than that for May, but of course, the deviation between this data and the consensus expectations of institutions at that time must be significant.