Although today's homework is not easy to write, we did anticipate it. Last week, we were talking about returning to the game of tariffs and monetary policy this week, especially over the weekend. The average tariff for the United States in 2024 is 2.5%, and over the weekend, Besant revealed that the equivalent tariff for some countries will be based on 10%, and then stacked upwards. Combined with the base tariff, it will be a base of 20%. The most basic is an eight fold tariff by 2024. Today's intervention towards Japan and South Korea should be around neutral. The total tariff of 25% is only slightly higher by 5%, which is not a lot, and there is also an outflow of exposure. As long as the conditions for opening up and reducing taxes to the United States are met, the tax rate can still be reduced. Personally, I estimate that 15% is the current bottom line of the United States, and this bottom line may not be implemented at once. It may start from 20% and gradually weaken. The market's feedback on tariffs is quite direct. On the one hand, the tariffs of Japan and South Korea are already quite high, and on the other hand, China, which has not been announced yet, may not be very optimistic. However, there is also good news. The European Union stated today that it can still negotiate and has reached a certain agreement with the United States, estimated to be a 20% guarantee. The most difficult one to tackle in the end should be China. Every time China's tariff issue is involved, the market will be shocked. After the news is announced, the US debt has also started to rise. The 20-year and 30-year US debt has exceeded 4.9%. Trump's life is difficult. The pressure from analysis will be put on the Federal Reserve again. Will Powell buy it? I don't think so. Then Trump can only jump and elect a new chairman of the Federal Reserve as soon as possible to boost the market. If I am not mistaken, the nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chairman should come out after the tariff policy is fully announced. The new Federal Reserve Chairman will certainly implement the interest rate reduction plan and make comments to renew the life of the market. Although Powell's term of office expires in May next year, if the next Federal Reserve Chairman is a member of the Federal Reserve, it does not rule out that Trump will strive for more positions from the members. Yes, I almost forgot about Tesla. Musk's actions are bound to cause panic among Tesla investors, there is no doubt about it. The lowest price we had last time was $273, and this time it should be more serious than last time. I don't know if it can fall below $270. If so, let's build a position first. The third quarter is a quarter of monetary policy and tariff game. How difficult is it? Let's evaluate it ourselves. Looking back at Bitcoin's data, I didn't expect the turnover rate on Monday to be lower than on Sunday. Is this because American investors haven't started working yet? However, the reduction of turnover rate has less pressure on the price, and the market sentiment is a little bit bad, mainly worrying about whether Trump will come up with something on July 9. I have made a slight adjustment to the supporting data. Currently, BTC has the highest concentration between $104000 and $108500, with a stock of nearly 2.2 million. However, its stability is still good. Of course, the main reason is that the US stock market has not shown much reaction. Overall, Bitcoin is still highly consistent with the US stock market. Looking at the reactions of the S&P and Nasdaq, we can roughly understand BTC's reaction. Data address: https://docs. (google.com)/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit? usp=sharing