Trump's new tariff action is coming again Originally, July 9th was the crucial deadline for tariffs, but as a result, Trump is planning to postpone the large-scale tariff increase until August 1st, Then it was claimed that the US government sent an official letter on July 7th notifying over 100 trading partners worldwide. The basic tax rate is still 10%, but it can be increased to a maximum of 50% depending on the situation. In addition, there is a special clause: the letter also includes an anti BRICS clause, which requires an additional 10% tax. Why did the Trump administration do this? The core goal of procrastination is still to exert pressure, first to heat up the tense atmosphere in the market, making everyone think that tariffs are coming, and using the panic in the capital market to force opponents to make concessions. Then announce an extension at the last minute, extending the negotiation window from a few days to a few weeks (this time from July 9th to August 1st), and then proceed to the next round of bargaining. However, the strategy of repeated use may not necessarily have particularly good results, and the probability of large-scale reconciliation is decreasing (dropping to 35%); Only some countries have been exempted, while the probability of the remaining countries being subject to tariffs ranging from 10% to 40% has slightly decreased; The probability of a complete breakdown in negotiations has exceeded 25%. Why is the deeper the delay, the higher the risk? In addition to repeated pressure, gradually tightening terms have led to increasingly limited room for concessions from various countries, and continuing to drag on will only lead to all parties moving from a game to a head-on confrontation. In addition, the alliance of tariff rivals is disintegrating, and besides the deep ties between the supply chains of Japan and South Korea and the United States, the means of counterattack are limited. The internal divisions within the European Union are serious, and the divisions within developing countries (BRICS) are also intensifying. The collapse of the alliance may seem beneficial to the United States, but it actually increases the risk of a hard landing, because for both the United States and Trump, when the opponent is a whole, the game is relatively controllable. However, after the opponent collapses, the United States will need to face dozens of independent countries with different interests and demands, which is equivalent to transforming from a team game of several parties to an individual battle royale. The most critical point is that the concern about tariffs has pushed up the yield of US treasury bond bonds (the interest rate of 10-year treasury bond bonds has risen by about 12 basis points in the past week). Inflation has resurged, expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have decreased, and coupled with a decrease in market traders, trading volume has shrunk. At this point, any bad news could be amplified, triggering a sharp decline in the market.