Morgan Stanley: Federal Reserve meeting minutes may expose increasingly serious divisions within the committee

The recent dot plot shows a clear divergence within the Federal Reserve. Some policy makers expect two interest rate cuts this year, while others predict no rate cuts at all. Morgan Stanley analysts said they will look for clues that led to this divergence. More hawkish commissioners may indicate that they are waiting for the unemployment rate to rise, or they need more time to assess the impact of tariffs and other fiscal policies on inflation. Powell has stated that he expects the inflationary effects of tariffs to manifest this summer and hinted that the only obstacle between the Federal Reserve and loose policies is the uncertainty of these price pressures. If the meeting minutes show partial agreement with this viewpoint, it may mark the Federal Reserve's shift towards a more proactive stance. (Golden Ten)