Although Trump has been calling for interest rate cuts, the market's expectation of interest rate cuts in July and September continued to weaken. Last week's data showed that the probability of not cutting interest rates in July was 80%, which has now risen to 95%. The probability of not cutting interest rates in September has also increased from 6.8% to 34.1%. The reason is that inflation is rising, the unemployment rate is decreasing, and the number of employed people is recovering, indicating that the US economy is still resilient and inflationary pressures are not yet resolved. Therefore, investors do not have expectations for the short-term easing of the Federal Reserve. This is not good news for Trump. As analyzed earlier, interest rate cuts are the key to the smooth implementation of its fiscal and trade policies, but Powell is unlikely to cooperate in the current situation, especially with almost no hope of a rate cut in July. Therefore, Trump is likely to nominate a new Fed chairman this month. Besant, who has a high voice at present, is pro Trump, but is not a director of the Federal Reserve, so it is difficult to pry the internal structure of the Federal Reserve. If appointed by current directors such as Bauman or Waller, it may form a new support force internally, gradually changing the policy inclination towards a more relaxed direction. This personnel layout not only increases the internal game within the Federal Reserve, but may also raise market expectations for future interest rate cuts. If the easing signal cannot be released soon, the US fiscal pressure will continue to drain market liquidity through high interest rates. Therefore, Trump is very likely to provide monetary policy checks and balances and support for its tariff policy and beautiful bill by appointing a new chairman.