Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Participants have different views on the inflation outlook, with only a few willing to consider a rate cut in July

According to Caixin News Agency, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting showed that policymakers believe there is "considerable uncertainty" regarding the potential inflationary impact of tariffs in terms of timing, scale, and duration. They have no unified answer on how much impact tariffs have on inflation, depending on how tariffs are transmitted to the progress of economic and trade negotiations. Since the June meeting, Federal Reserve governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman have proposed the possibility of a rate cut this month based on moderate inflation data. The minutes show that a "minority" of officials expressed willingness to consider cutting interest rates at the meeting on July 29-30. Most officials believe that a "moderate reduction" in policy interest rates this year may be appropriate. However, most officials still insist that the stable economic performance of the United States has given them the patience to adjust interest rates. The evaluation of economic growth by decision-makers in the minutes is "steady", believing that the unemployment rate is at a low level. The attendees believe that although the uncertainty of inflation and economic prospects has decreased, the adjustment of monetary policy should still adhere to the principle of prudence After the release of the meeting minutes, according to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 93.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 6.7%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 31.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 64.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 4.5%.