Whether Pumpfun's public offering is a brainless opportunity to make a profit or a carefully designed "smash the market" trap, according to research, it may be an upward trend of about 70% and an infinite downward trend. The overall profit and loss ratio is not that good for the transaction. Here are a few reasons 1. Extraction of liquidity timing: Pump. fun has delayed its listing multiple times and ultimately decided to enter the market during the window with the most abundant liquidity. If the project wants to seize the market and collect chips, there is no need to deliberately choose this time. The purpose is likely to be to maximize the extraction of value in one go, rather than long-term operation of the project 2. The issue of takeover behind high valuation and high financing: The public offering is valued at $4 billion and ranks 50th in market value. The $600 million fundraising has great selling pressure and no lock up restrictions. It also needs to include investors, arbitrage funds, and the project party itself. Which big banks have the confidence to manipulate and make profits, and how much capital needs to be prepared 3. Special offer for Chinese: public offering strictly excludes highly regulated markets such as the United States and Europe, and nearly supports Asia. If you have the purchasing power, you can directly participate in public offering. Who will pick up the offer later? Will Americans and Europe pick up the offer? 4. Project fundamentals: The total revenue is 700 million US dollars, but the revenue has plummeted by 92% compared to the peak. The problem faced is the rapid decline of the meme market and the uncertainty of Pump. Fun's own market share. In this situation, it is already good to give a normal valuation of 10 times, which is 7 billion US dollars of FDV. Moreover, the project party is almost impossible to consider dividends, and the market value cannot be supported.