At present, the reason for the sudden explosion of the pancake is still a mystery. There is no news from Powell and the Federal Reserve. Assuming that this time it is because everyone is generally short or short at the high point, and the main force takes advantage of the information from the Shanghai State owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission to launch a surprise attack, we can refer to the situation where the policy market of Xi Jinping's last edition rose by more than 40%. Short term news or emotions will regress to the mean. But the difference is that last time it was a low point for the market, this time it is a high point. Last time there were still many retail investors, but now it is mostly institutional users participating. Although there is no endorsement from the top leadership this time, recent signals of policy loosening such as the relaxation of stablecoins have already warmed up the market. If the combined strength of various favorable policies in the near future is equivalent to the level of last time, then referring to historical data, the policy driven market will last for an average of 7-14 days, with a pullback of 20% -30%. After rising in 2019, it quickly rebounded. The price fell below $8000 in November and returned to the mean overall. But now about 70% of the pancake market is dominated by institutions, unlike the retail frenzy of 2019. That is to say, the rise may be more 'orderly', but at high levels it is susceptible to global risks (such as progress in trade negotiations). If the opening up of the Shanghai State owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission only stays at the "consideration" stage rather than actual policies (such as allowing crypto pilots), the probability of mean regression is high, similar to 2019. Overall, the core of this mystery may be the combination of policy signals and market position structure. Short term sentiment does tend to return to the mean (expected to retrace by 10% -15% within 1-2 weeks), but institutional involvement may make the retracement milder and smaller in magnitude.