U.S. JUNE CPI PREVIEW: INFLATION TRENDS AND FED OUTLOOK Goldman Sachs Forecast - Core CPI: +0.23% m/m (below 0.3% consensus). - Core services inflation: +0.26% m/m. - Tariffs add +8bps, mainly in household goods, recreational/communication items. - Outlook: Tariffs to push core inflation up in H2 2025; 3.1% YoY core CPI by December. - Softer CPI could support 25bp Fed rate cut in September. J.P. Morgan Forecast - Headline CPI: +0.28% m/m; Core CPI: +0.29% m/m (highest since February). - YoY: Headline CPI at 2.7% (4-month high); Core CPI at 3.0% (highest since February). - Drivers: Tariff-impacted goods, rising shelter/travel prices (OER/tenants’ rent +0.3%, lodging +0.3%, airfares +0.8%). - Fed likely to hold rates, monitoring tariffs and inflation expectations.