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The Kobeissi Letter|Jul 16, 2025 15:47

The market knew today's announcement was coming: Over the last 7 days, the odds of Fed Chair Powell "out as Fed Chair" in 2025 rose from 12% to 26%, per Kalshi. This came with no news at all. Today, the White House said that President Trump is "likely" going to fire Fed Chair Powell. The odds of Powell "out as Fed Chair" surged to a new high of 38% after the announcement. Keep watching the market.

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Timeline

Aug 12, 14:24【Dismissal of US Secretary of Labor and Federal Reserve Chairman】

Aug 10, 09:31【The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut affects the cryptocurrency market】

Aug 07, 11:45【Trump has no intention of firing Powell】

Aug 06, 07:14【The politicization of US inflation data raises concerns, and short-term support pressure on BTC is evident】

Aug 04, 13:21【Trump's dismissal of labor bureau chief is detrimental to the US dollar】

Aug 04, 13:19【Trump's dismissal of BLS chief seen as detrimental to the US dollar】

Aug 02, 15:53【The market downturn is inexplicable but traceable】

Aug 02, 14:07【The stock market plummeted by $1.1 trillion】

Aug 02, 14:04【Trump talks about Powell's stay or departure】

Aug 02, 11:00【Trump will immediately dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell】

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